1 in 6 young people on course to be out of work or education by 2031, Lib Dems reveal
1 in 6 young people on course to be out of work or education by 2031, Lib Dems reveal
The number of 16-to-24-year-olds out of education, employment or training is on course to rise by 280,000 to reach 1.26 million by 2031, or one in six of that age group, according to Liberal Democrat analysis. Based on Alan Milburn's review, which estimates the crisis already costs the country £125 billion a year, those extra young people would add around £36 billion annually to the bill unless the Government acts to shut off the NEET pipeline at source, the party has warned.
Nearly a million young people (981,000) are already NEET, up 30,000 in a year. Milburn's interim report found the system already has the data to spot those at risk, but lacks the architecture, funding and accountability to act on it.
Liberal Democrats are calling on the Government to introduce a 100-hour work experience guarantee and a careers coach for every young person - to ensure everyone leaving school is equipped with the best possible skills to succeed in life.
Education Spokesperson Munira Wilson MP has said the warning signs are there “long before a young person leaves school”, but too often nobody steps in until years afterwards where they have been “left in limbo, not earning or learning”.
The party wants the Government's response to Milburn to commit to:
- A 100-hour work experience and enrichment guarantee: every young person guaranteed at least 100 hours of work placements, career-focused enrichment or volunteering- the most ambitious work experience offer of any party.
- Personalised careers coaching: a real person, multiple times a year, helping each young person build a five-year plan for life after education, drawing on best practice from the Netherlands and Germany and delivered in partnership with the third sector. Milburn's interim report found careers guidance in schools to be underpowered, with NEET young people far less likely to feel ready for work when they leave education.
- Broader qualifications at 18: an evolution of A-Levels into a baccalaureate-style system, alongside T-Levels and V-Levels, so no young person is forced down a narrow pathway at 14 or 16 that doesn't suit them.
None of these changes will matter though, unless we get our economy growing and create more jobs for young people” added Wilson. The party is proposing for the UK to rejoin the EU Single Market and a customs union, which could boost economic growth by £25 billion per year. Liberal Democrats have also committed to reversing the Government’s NICs increases which has functioned as a “jobs tax” that has made hiring more expensive for employers.
The party warned that both Labour and the Conservatives risk narrowing young people's futures. Labour's plans to make pupils choose between academic and technical qualifications at 14 could funnel disadvantaged children into narrower routes. The Conservatives let more than £2 billion set aside for apprenticeships go unspent while in government, allowed the pupil premium to wither, and now want to cut 100,000 university places a year.
Savanta polling, commissioned by the Liberal Democrats, found 56% of 16-to-24-year-olds had hit major roadblocks finding work in the past year, and one in five (19%) had given up looking altogether.
Ed Davey, Leader of the Liberal Democrats, said:
“Every teacher knows a child that started secondary school bright and eager, but over the years drifted to the back of the class. Too often, nobody notices, and they slip through the cracks to become one of the almost one million young people not in education or training.
“As a young carer for my mum, and now as a dad myself, I know how much it matters when someone truly notices what a young person is going through and gives them the support they need.
“Unless we act now, hundreds of thousands more young people will slip through the cracks, stuck without the education, training or guidance to succeed. Ministers must seize this moment to change the system and give every young people the opportunities they deserve.”
Munira Wilson MP, Liberal Democrat Spokesperson for Education, Children and Families, said:
“It is nothing short of a national moral failure that we now have nearly a million young people out of work or training. We all have a responsibility to provide the next generation the same opportunities we were afforded - but we have not held up our end of the deal. Enough is enough.
“Alan Milburn is saying what young people have been telling us for years. They've been let down by a system that simply isn't working for them - all while having to listen to harmful narratives that they simply aren’t trying hard enough. How much longer will young people have to put up with this rubbish?
“The warning signs are there long before someone leaves school. But too often, the problem is not addressed, or even talked about until a young person has been left in limbo, not learning or earning for years.
“Our plan is ready to go. 100 hours of real work experience and a proper careers coach for every young person - we urge the Prime Minister to use this plan so this is the last generation that ever has to experience a NEETs crisis.
ENDS
NEETs forecasting analysis
As of August 2026, around 980,000 young people between the ages of 16 to 24 are NEET, based on the ONS Labour Force Survey. This is around 13% of 16-24 year olds.
In mid-2022, the NEET rate was 10.5%, but now stands at 13%. That works out as an increase of about 0.6% per year. This figure is derived from the line of best fit through all quarterly data since 2022.
If we were to forecast that same trend forward by five years, this would equal 16% by 2031: 13% + (5 years * 0.6%) = 16%.
The ONS’s latest official population projections, published April 2026, expect 7.92 million 16 to 24 year olds in the UK by mid-2031. That’s up from 7.58 million today, because the large group of children born around 2008 to 2012 will reach that age.
16% of this cohort is 1.26 million young NEETs by 2031. This would be a real increase of 280,000 more young NEETs than we have today in 2026.
Year | Total Number of NEETs | Percentage of Young People |
| 2026 | 983,000 | 13% |
| 2027 | 1,040,000 | 13.6% |
| 2028 | 1,100,000 | 14.2% |
| 2029 | 1,160,000 | 14.8% |
| 2030 | 1,210,000 | 15.4% |
| 2031 | 1,260,000 | 16% |
Milburn Review: Puts the total cost of the NEETs crisis at £125bn. Divided by the number of NEETs at the time of publication, this would equate to an approximate cost of £130,000 per NEET.
This means that, if these NEET numbers continued to climb by the same trajectory as they had done previously, the lifetime cost to the economy could increase by:
According to Milburn: £36.4 billion
